Independence shadow provokes losses of 1% for the Ibex

Some analysts believe that this declaration has been priced in already, but there are others who consider that it will be even more negative. As a result, the majority of experts believe that the Ibex will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

“The Catalan question could be answered to today, as the President of Catalonia will address the parliament in the region,” CMC Markets said. “The Catalan situation has had a major impact on the IBEX 35, and the Spanish government hasn’t ruled out imposing direct rule, but given its track record lately, it will need to choose its actions carefully.”

“Everything could change in a few hours, depending on what he says this evening. In this sense, the situations being mulled over by investors include an immediate declaration of independence or a deferred process. The possibility that the separatists take a step back appears unlikely, and investors will look to the reaction of the Spanish government.”

In the Ibex, DIA (-4.28%) was the worst performer, followed by Banco Santander which was down 2.92% after celebrating its investor day. The Cantabrian bank lifted its profit target for 2018, but was not enough for the market. Other big stocks such as Inditex (-0.96%), Telefonica (-0.81%) and BBVA (-0.64%) also closed lower. Caixabank and Colonial fell 2.22% and 2.13% respectively.

On the othe rhand, Siemens Gamesa was up 3.41%, after analysts at Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’. Cellnex was up 1.28% and Tecnicas Reunidas 0.6%.

In the general stock exchange, Borges (+5%) and Renta 4 (+3%) were the most profitable stocks, while Pescanova (-8%) and Montebalito (-7.8%) were the worst performers.

IN OTHER NEWS

There is life outside Catalonia, and away from the volatility experienced by the Ibex. Sabine Lautenschlaeger, ECB board member, said on Monday that the institution should reduce its bond-buying programme from 2018, with the objective of ending it. The board will meet on 26 October.

Brexit is also in the news this week, which sees the restart of negotiations between the UK and the EU. UK PM Theresa May said in a speech before parliament that there would be a period of transition of two years after its exit from the bloc. She added that there had been “real and tangible progress”, and that the government is making all the possible preparations for a ‘no deal’ situation.

In geopolitics, diplomatic tensions between US and Turkey are notable after a mutual suspension of visas from the countries. The Turkish lira and stocks fell, affecting values such as BBVA and Mapfre which have exposure to the zone.

Regarding the data of the day, German imports rose 1.2% in August, above the 0.5% projected, while exports rose 3.1% against 1.0% expected. In Spain, business confidence fell 1.1% in the fourth quarter.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

“Tuesday’s losses encapture the perfection inside the normal parameters in the sense that it would form part of the strong gains of Thursday’s session. As we we commented before, it does not matter what the Ibex does between 10,000 and 10,300. The references of control can be found at the bottom of the channel, the 9,900 zone and above at 10,410 points,” said Bolsamanía analyst José María Rodríguez.

“In the case that the price remains trapped inside that range we see no major changes. In other words, only if it rises above 10,410 points will we begin to think anything is changing.”