High volatility in the Ibex (+ 0.25%) after the ECB's announcement of stimulus measures

The European Central Bank has taken several significant measures to boost economic growth in the euro zone. First, it has cut the deposit facility rate by 10 basis points, to -0.5%. In addition, it will resume the asset purchase program, known as QE (Quantitative Easing), worth 20bn euros monthly from November 1 and indefinitely as long as "necessary".

In addition, to minimize the impact that the drop in the deposit facility rate will have on the banking sector, the institution chaired by Mario Draghi has confirmed that "in order to support the transmission of monetary policy, a system of two will be introduced to save remuneration, in which part of the banks' excess liquidity holdings will be exempt from the negative rate of the deposit facility. " This segmentation measure, known as 'tiering' in English, will mean an excess interest rate of 0% will be applied to excess reserves, while the funds that fall within the minimum reserve requirements will be applied interest of -0.5%.

The ECB has maintained official interest rates at 0%. In this regard, he said in his statement that "the Governing Council now expects the ECB's key interest rates to remain at their current or lower levels until it has seen that inflation prospects converge solidly at a sufficiently close level, but less than 2% within its projection horizon, and that this convergence has been constantly reflected in the underlying dynamics of inflation. " That is, it guarantees very low rates for a long time. After these measures, the euro increases in value 0.3%, up to $ 1.1042.

BUSINESS WAR AND RECESSION IN GERMANY

The trade war is also news today. Donald Trump posted on Twitter last night his intention to delay by two weeks (from October 1 to October 15) the increases in tariffs on Chinese imports worth 25bn. Trump has said that it is a "gesture of goodwill" and that he has done so at the request of the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister because the Asian power celebrates its 70th anniversary. This US movement fuels optimism for the meetings between the two super-powers scheduled for October.

As for other issues this Thursday, today the August CPI has been published in Germany, which has remained at -0.2%, as expected by the consensus. Also in Germany, the IFO institute has cut its growth forecasts for the country and has indicated that the recession will affect Europe's largest economy in the third quarter. In addition, today the industrial production of the Eurozone in July has been known, which has fallen to -0.4% when -0.1% was expected. In the US, the August PIC has risen 0.1% compared to the previous 0.3%. It should also be noted that the group known as OPEC + has met today and has indicated that it will not take any decision on the production of crude until December. Brent oil falls 1.8% to $ 59.67.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

"Volatile session this Thursday in our selective and in the rest of our European indexes in the heat of the decisions of the ECB, something that we expected. However, the closure has no implications of any kind. And yes, it is true that some fatigue or loss of 'momentum' (cruising speed) is observed, in addition to extreme daily overbought levels, but if there is something we have learned, it is that when strength / weakness are very important, overbought / oversold mean nothing. They only serve to get us out of the market sooner, "says José María Rodríguez, an analyst at Bolsamanía.

"As long as we continue to have increasing minimums and maximums in our Ibex, as is the case, we will not have any sign of real weakness, no matter how dizzying the significant increases since the August lows are. In weekly and monthly candles, overbought does not exist. On the resistance side, as we have said in recent days, the key is still in the weekly bearish gap of 9,410 points, "concludes this expert.