- Investors will pay attention to the tone of his speech and the clues about that possible fourth rate rise
- Originally, the Fed had projected three rises in interest rates in 2018
The Ibex 35 ends this Wednesday in red and it has been the most bearish index among the main European stocks, dropping 0.52%, down to 9,630 points. The stock markets remain cautious pending on the interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the fear of a possible fourth rate hike in 2018.
- 11.473,900
- 0,33%
IAG was the most bearish value on Wednesday and lost 2.11%, followed by Inditex, which lost 1.49%, and Ferrovial, which fell 1.42%. Banks have also dragged the index downwards, especially Bankinter (-1.27%), Bankia (-1.05%) and BBVA (-1%). The entity of Francisco González closes in red even though HSBC has raised its recommendation on the bank to 'buy' from 'maintain'. Aena also stood out among the losses, falling 1.35%.
On the other hand, Arcelormittal led the gains and rose 3.94%, followed by Indra, which rose 2.71% and Siemens Gamesa, which rose 2.52%.
In the main board, Vértice 360 is again the news after announcing that it will debate the approval of a 'contra-split' at its next shareholders' meeting. The company remains unquoted and maintains its price at 1% per share.
WAITING FOR THE FED
Link Securities experts warn that the market has not discarded a possible fourth rate hike in the United States. There is that fear, but, in principle, the possibility is remote. So they warn that if it follows from this meeting that there will be that fourth rate hike in 2018, the variable income and the fixed income will have a very bad time.
"The main event of the day is the FOMC meeting, the first with Jerome Powell as president, and we expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to the 1.50% -1.75% range, since the economy it is strong, "say the Danske Bank experts in their daily report. "Among other things, Powell's February testimony pointed to a continuation of the cycle of gradual increases, since he expects inflation to rise and stabilize at 2%. (...) The 'points' of its members are what more important and we expect the Fed to maintain the signal of three increases for this year but that its members are more confident, we will continue to listen to the comments of the Fed members after the meeting, when they usually express their views " , add these experts.
"Powell will hold his first press conference as president of the Fed today and investors will pay special attention to the Fed's outlook, in light of the recent volatility of the stock market and the growing concern about a trade war, in the face of the threat of the imposition of 60 billion dollars' tariffs on China at the end of the week, "says Michael Hewson, director of analysis at CMC Markets in London.
Apart from this meeting of the Fed, the day has several notable references, such as the employment data in the United Kingdom (unemployment in the UK falls to levels of 1975, with 4.3% unemployed) or housing sales February in the United States. Remember that, due to the change in time, the Fed's decision will be known this Wednesday at 7:00 PM instead of 8:00 PM, as usual.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
According to José María Rodríguez, technical analyst of 'Bolsamanía', the session this Wednesday has put the index a little more to the support area of 9,500 points. Below that level, the door opens to 9,250 points. In his opinion, the index remains "very weak" and is "relatively far from the first of the resistances: the last decreasing maximum at 9,940 points".
Regarding Santander and BBVA, the expert points out that the graphics "are still worrying". Rodriguez explains that the Cantabrian entity presents "a clear figure of bearish implications in 'head and shoulders' that does not bode well for the next sessions / weeks." As for BBVA, it is "flirting with the support area of 6.5 euros" and, below, stands the 6.4 and 6 euros.
In any case, the analyst of 'Bolsamanía' believes that the session on Thursday will be more important, "because we will have to analyze the reaction of the market to the rise in rates of the Fed this afternoon, as well as the words of Powell."