After the sharp falls of the last two days of 2019 and after closing last year with increases of 11.8%, the Ibex 35 has rebounded with desire in the first session of 2020 (+ 1.49%; 9,691.20 points ) thanks to optimism about China and the US and while still focusing on national politics. Within the selective, we highlight the strong increases in banks (Santander and Bankia, especially) and also in IAG, Ence and Cellnex.
- 11.446,700
- -0,18%
The president of the Congress, Meritxell Batet, has summoned full for this weekend and on Tuesday the vote in which, predictably, Pedro Sánchez will be voted in as president. In addition, the ERC decides this afternoon if it abstains in that vote, key to the formation of a Government.
From there, there are many doubts about the political and economic future that awaits Spain under a highly fragmented Executive. There are few experts who think that this year's potential of the Ibex is zero or minimal and they blame it precisely on the state of politics in the country.
And, if you look outside Spain, investors again have China and the US in focus. Both powers are expected to sign the 'first phase' agreement on January 15. Donald Trump has said it will be "a broad trade agreement." The ceremony will take place in the White House and high-level Chinese representatives will be present. "At a later date I will go to Beijing, where the talks on 'phase two' will begin," Trump said.
"Today marks the end of the holidays (in the markets). The scenario for 2020 will be established evaluating how the stock markets behave in the coming days and judging what goes up regarding liquidity and what goes up regarding macroeconomics," experts say Danske Bank in their daily report.
MORE STIMULI FROM CHINA
Good prospects around the US and China always help, although the year also begins with tension between the US and Iran, and that creates uncertainty. They also help favorable macro data. The December Caixin PMI in China has remained in expansive terrain, although it has fallen in December to 51.5 from 51.8 in November.
Similarly in China, it should be noted that the central bank has implemented a series of measures to underpin the economy, which has led to increases above 1% in Asian markets. Finally, December manufacturing PMIs in Europe have been published. In Spain, the sector closed 2019 in the doldrums (47.4) due to the downturn in production. And in the Euro Zone, the slowdown in manufacturing deepened in December, with a fall to 46.3 from November 46.9.
In other markets, the barrel of Brent oil rises 0.4%, to $ 66.30, after closing the year with gains of 35%, its largest annual increase since 2016. In addition, the euro falls in value 0.23% and it changes to $ 1,1185 after highs of the last four months. Finally, the profitability of the Spanish 10-year bond falls to 0.44%, while the Hispanic risk premium rebounds up to 68 points.
IBEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 35
By technical analysis, César Nuez, an analyst at Bolsamanía, established a 10% increase target for the Ibex in 2020, to approximate levels of 10,650 points. According to its assessment, the selective has confirmed a bullish figure in the form of ' inverted shoulder-head-shoulder'.
"This figure is a trend change, so we expect a good technical behavior of the Ibex 35 for this year. The objective of raising the figure results from projecting the amplitude of the head on the neck line, so it seems feasible that we can end up seeing, throughout 2020, an attack at the level of 10,643 points, maximum of 2018 ", concludes this expert.
