The Ibex 35 has started the month of April with increases of 1.1% to 9,341.70 points, led by the banking sector, after the vice president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, commented that the ECB is analyzing whether Banks need compensation for the current environment of low interest rates. In addition, better-than-expected economic data in China has contributed to investor optimism, as profits have been widespread across all European exchanges. The Spanish selective accumulates an annual revaluation of 9.3%, after closing the first quarter with increases of 8.2%.
- 11.617,900
- -0,80%
During his appearance in Brussels to address the Economic and Monetary Committee of the European Parliament to present the Annual Report of the ECB of 2018, Guindos has pointed out that the highest monetary authority is considering measures to counteract the negative effect of its ultra-accommodative policy on the margin of interest of European banks.
"It is being analyzed if the banks need some type of compensation for the negative rates, but still no decision has been made", said the former Spanish Minister of Economy, along the same lines as Mario Draghi's statements made a few days ago .
His words have been very well received by Spanish banks. Sabadell, BBVA and CaixaBank have shot up more than 4%, while Bankinter, Santander and Bankia have rebounded more than 3%. Other large values that have registered positive behavior have been Repsol (+ 0.79%) and Telefónica (+ 0.56%). On the contrary, the electricity sector and Inditex (-0.42%) were the main ones for the selective sector.
On the other hand, this will undoubtedly be the week of Santander, which presents its Strategic Plan on Wednesday. In addition, Almirall (+ 2.83%) has announced the closing of the sale of its aesthetics business to Celling Biosciences, while MásMóvil (+ 3.4%) has agreed to buy the total of the convertible bond of Provicente for 883m euros and has refinanced his debt.
Likewise, Bankia announced the closing of the sale to Mapfre of 51% of Caja Granada Vida and Cajamurcia Vida y Pensiones. The entity ends its reorganization of the insurance business after the integration of BMN.
On the other hand, ArcelorMittal (+ 5.49%) and Acerinox (+ 3.65%) have risen strongly to the tune of the latest positive news about trade negotiations. Arcelor has also benefited from a favorable report from Morgan Stanley.
Outside Spain, the news has been the sharp fall of EasyJet after anticipating worse results in the first fiscal semester due to Brexit and the overall macro slowdown. EasyJet drags the rest of European airlines down and IAG has been one of the worst values of the Ibex (-0.81%).
POSITIVE DATA IN CHINA
Returning to the Chinese macro data, the two indices that measure the activity of the manufacturing sector, the official and the one elaborated by the consultancy Caixin, have revealed an expected expansion of the activity in the month of March.
"Although it is usual for activity in China to rebound after the celebration of the New Lunar Year, everything seems to indicate that the Chinese Government's fiscal efforts to stimulate economic growth are working," explained Link Securities.
In addition, the manufacturing PMIs for March in Europe have been published. In Spain, the activity of the manufacturing sector accelerated in March. The PMI stood at 50.9 points compared to 49.9 in February. In Germany - a particularly relevant figure after the last disappointment with the PMI - the reference was at 44.1, down from the previous 47.6 and the expected 44.7. It is its lowest reading in 80 months, although it has not affected the market.
Likewise, inflation in the Euro Zone, which moderated to 1.4% in March, and unemployment in the European block, which repeats the historical minimum of 6.5%, has also been published.
To the good Chinese macro data we add the positive news regarding the trade agreement between China and the United States. This weekend it has transpired that the talks are on the right track and that Beijing has made unprecedented offers to the United States in relation to technology transfers. "That gives an indication of the seriousness of the Chinese government when it comes to trying to reach an agreement," says David Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets in London.
FROM BREXIT TO TURKEY
Although it seems like an unfunny running gag, the British Parliament votes again on Monday its Brexit options. Starting at 9:00 pm, it will submit a series of motions on different Brexit modalities to scrutiny, two days after Theresa May's third loss to the House of Commons. This would be the last vote before the country leaves the European Union (EU) without prior agreement on April 12.
In addition, this Monday Turkey is still news after the crashes seen in the Turkish lira in recent days, which again puts pressure on companies with interests there, as is the case of BBVA. The first official results of the local elections held on Sunday in the country would give the victory to Erdogan's opposition. The Turkish lira, more or less calm in the early stages of the session, now falls by 2%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35
"Our selective starts the week on a good footing, leaving a bullish gap (by definition support), at 9,240 points, the sensations are still good, especially since at no time has the first of the important supports been drilled (9,100 points), and because if we look at the evolution of the price from the minimums at the end of December we have minimum and maximum increases at all times, which means a bullish trend, "says José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.
"In addition, we have again clear daily oversold levels, which in normal conditions serves to underpin the idea that we can once again attend a short-term bounce that takes us back to the annual highs (9,530) and above the 9,600 points, coinciding with the upper part of the bullish channel to which the price has shaping since the end of January. In fact, as a summary, it can be said that as long as the support of the 9,100 points is not broken, we understand that in the worst scenario, the price will move laterally, and at best, it will look again for the upper part of the short-term bullish channel ", concludes this expert.
