ep fotosrecurslibex-35 20190624110502
Eduardo Parra - Europa Press - Archivo

The exchanges face a week of high voltage in which investors will continue to focus on the trade war, Brexit and the global slowdown while waiting for Mario Draghi. On Thursday, the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be announced and it is expected that, after the penultimate meeting of its mandate, the president of the central bank will announce a new package of unprecedented stimuli. This Monday, the Ibex 35 has risen moderately (+ 0.23%. 9,010.60 points) and has increased the rebound of 2% last week.

  • 11.435,700
  • -0,28%

Within the Ibex, the increases in Sabadell (+ 4.36%), Meliá (+ 3.48%) and CaixaBank (+ 3.28%) and the cuts in IAG (-1.25%) in full strike have stood out of its subsidiary British Airways. Downturn also for Cellnex (-3.72%), Grifols (-2.18%) and Iberdrola (-2.1%).

In the Continuous Market, the real estate investment company Lar has shot up 10% ahead of a possible bid of the South African fund Vukile, owner of the Socimi Castellana Properties. For its part, Bankia (+ 2.92%) has risen in a new day of the trial for the IPO of the entity, with the presentation of the final conclusions by the accusators.

In other markets, the euro is worth 0.17%, up to $1.1046. For its part, the pound rises in value 0.6%, up to $ 1,2354. In addition, Brent oil rises 1.7%, to 62.62 dollars. In the debt market, the profitability of the 10-year Spanish bond rebounds to 0.23%, while the Spanish risk premium drops to 80 points.

BACK TO BREXIT

In the geopolitical scene, the course of divorce events between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom continues to make headlines in the beginning of the second week of September.

Parliament is expected to vote and reject a new motion presented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson for an electoral advance. On the other hand, the British press collects that the 'premier' is preparing a plan to legally prevent a new extension of Brexit, after Friday the House of Lords approved the extension.

Likewise, the Bank of England (BoE) has prepared its banks for any impact they may suffer after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, said Alex Brazier, director of financial stability for this bank to the newspaper 'The Times'. "The financial system will not collapse once we leave the EU," Brazier said to this newspaper, adding that the impending change of government in the BoE will not affect the central bank. This Monday it was known that the GDP of the United Kingdom advanced 0.3% in July.

ECONOMIC WEAKNESS IN CHINA

The news also goes through the trade data presented by China. Asian giant exports fell unexpectedly in August when shipments to the United States slowed sharply by 16%. According to experts, it is the symptom that indicates a greater weakness in the second largest economy in the world and underlines the pressing need for more stimuli as the trade war between China and the US intensifies.

International sales last month fell 1% compared to the previous year, the biggest cut since June, when they were 1.3%, according to customs data. Analysts expected a 2.0% increase in a Reuters poll after the 3.3% increase in July.

Beijing is expected to announce more support measures in the coming weeks to avoid the risk of a more acute economic slowdown as the US increases trade pressure, including the first cuts in some key loan rates in four years. On Friday, the central bank reduced the reserve requirements of banks for the seventh time since the beginning of 2018 to free up more loan funds.

IBEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 35

"Third consecutive session in which our Ibex struggles with the zone of 9,000 points as a round and psychological figure, because in reality it is not a real resistance. Although continuing this way it will end up being so. What is clearly observed is the loss of inertia, of 'momentum' in our selective (also in Europe, although something more evident is done in the Ibex), "says José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.

"But, on the other hand, it is normal after a rebound close to 8% since the August lows. Daily overbought yields present extreme readings, not weekly ones. Which means that under normal conditions it should attend a correction / adjustment of the previous increases before trying to reach higher levels, "adds this expert.

"Another very different thing is Wall Street, where the S&P 500 is currently trading at only 1.5% of historical highs (3,027.98). In any case, the key to our market is still in the banks. We will only continue to bounce if they do and do it because the European banking index, the EURO STOXX Banks, is doing so with maximum precision from the Brexit lows, the lows of three years ago, "Rodríguez concludes.

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