The Ibex 35 has risen 0.56% to 9,198.80 points on the last day of the first half. The operators remain expectant in the face of what might happen between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at this Saturday's meeting in the framework of the G20. Not much is expected from the outcome, in any case an improvement in relations which the market would receive well. As of Monday everything that happens in Osaka will be quoted. From the outset, to think that the conflict between the two powers will end up agreeing to a deal is highly unlikely.
- 11.656,600
- 0,39%
Little movement, a trickle down and a lot of caution in these sessions in the stocks that could be said, are transitional. July kicks off in the markets next week, a month that will continue to be marked by China and the United States, but especially by central banks (there is a meeting of the ECB on July 25 and a meeting of the Fed on March 31 July). In addition, business results, which will begin to be known at the end of the month, will also be very relevant.
After closing the first semester, the selective accumulates an annual rise in value of 7.7% after rebounding 2.2% in the month of June. A positive figure that should be put into context, since the index closed last year with an annual fall of 15%. In addition, other markets have behaved much better. For example, Wall Street increased in value over 15% on average in the first half, the German Dax 17% and the Ftse Mib Italian almost 16%.
In other markets, Brent oil rose 0.1% to $ 66.60. In addition, the euro rose in value 0.16% to $ 1.1381. For its part, the Spanish risk premium rebounds up to 72 points and the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond remains close to its minimum record of 0.39%.
G20 SUMMIT
"The central issue is the G20 summit that begins in Osaka, although the long-awaited meeting between Trump and Xi is scheduled for tomorrow, the issues surrounding the summit, especially the trade issue and tensions with Iran, will condition the market sentiment. The chances of truce in the trade war have been increasing, but the risk of Trump increasing tariffs if the summit does not bring any progress still persists, "say experts at Danske Bank.
FROM MACRO DATA TO BUSINESS ISSUES
In the economic scene, the CPI of the Euro Zone of June has remained stable at 1.2%. UK GDP in the first quarter also remained unchanged at 0.5%. In addition, in Spain, the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, one tenth more than the previous quarter. And in the US, the underlying PCE index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, has remained at 1.6% year-on-year in May, below the 2% target set by the central bank.
At the business level, this morning it was known that Ibercaja has sold a portfolio of doubtful loans worth 534 million euros and with a negative impact on the profit before taxes of the second quarter of approximately 25 million euros.
In addition, IAG is moving forward thanks to a report from Deutsche Bank in which it reiterates its preference for the holding company within the sector.
In Europe, Deutsche Bank rises after passing the annual stress test of the Federal Reserve, which tests the ability of banks to weather a major economic recession. However, Credit Suisse is now subject to conditions in its US operations after the Fed found weaknesses in its capital planning processes.
For its part, the British-Swiss mining giant Glencore is under the spotlight. At least 41 miners in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo died on Thursday, when a copper and cobalt mine owned by the company collapsed.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35
"The Ibex closes on Friday with slight green numbers but with shy drops in the weekly balance, it has been, in theory, a week of consolidation of levels, of lateral movemens. However, our European neighbors have behaved much better. This, as we have already commented in the last sessions / weeks, can be seen as they are on the threshold of the annual maximums, while the Ibex is just over 4% of the homologous levels ", explains José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía .
"Regardless of how the markets awaken on Monday once they pick up on the result of the G20 summit, the fact remains that the technical aspect continues to encourage optimism, and more so with Wall Street also at the top of historical highs", adds this expert.
"Basically we have the problem, our selective ballast by a financial sector that is still very much affected, although as you already know the weakness is of all the banks in the Old Continent. For the time being and with sights on Monday, to remind them of the zones of short-term control: 9,060 as support and 9,335 as resistance ", concludes Rodríguez.
