The Ibex rises 2% in the week but remains in danger zone

Most index values ​​closed positive. The most bullish were DIA (+ 2.66%), ACS (+ 2.47%) and Acerinox (+ 1.96%). Among the great values, quite discreet behavior. Inditex rose 0.3%, followed by Aena (+ 0.27%), BBVA (+ 0.2%) and Iberdrola (+ 0.06%).

On the other hand, Telefónica fell by 0.09% and Repsol by 0.18%. Although the most bearish values ​​were Siemens Gamesa (-0.44%), Colonial (-0.43%) and Enagás (-0.37%). In this scenario, it is necessary for the 'blue chips' to react so that the Ibex can escape this area of ​​annual minimums. But the truth is that the Spanish stock market lacks strength and investors prefer to stay on the sidelines while waiting for events.

Today it was news that Santander was willing to pay up to 200 million euros for Popular. This was reported by S & P Global Market Intelligence, which has had access to internal documents of the entity, from which it is concluded that the bank chaired by Ana Botín anticipated that a resolution would be produced.

The crisis of emerging economies, with Turkey and Argentina at the forefront, have had a significant impact on market confidence. In addition, although economic activity in Spain remains solid, the political uncertainty due to the weakness of the socialist government and the constant tension with Catalonia do not help domestic equities at all.

OTHER RELEVANT FACTORS

Regarding international trade tensions, the market speculates on a rapprochement between China and the United States, although Donald Trump wanted to make it clear through a tweet that the threat of tariffs is still there and that it is China who should concede 'because it is the Asian giant that is at a disadvantage in this commercial war.

Moreover, the currency market remains a clear protagonist, especially after the latest movements of central banks, which during the last day had a clear impact on currencies, especially in the lira after the rate hike in Turkey. Within the emerging markets, the Argentine peso has suffered a new collapse in the last hours and has marked historical lows in closing prices.

For its part, the euro fell in value by 0.27% to $ 1.1660. In the commodity market, Brent oil rose 0.12% to $ 78.67. Finally, Spain's risk premium has fallen by 1.5% and closes the week by 105 points.

In addition, just as a decade of financial collapse that caused the fall of Lehman Brothers, many investors are wondering when the next crisis will be and what will be the trigger. Both JP Morgan and economist Nouriel Roubini agree that 2020 will be the year in which all the conditions will occur to make it happen.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

"Despite closing timidly above the 9,330 points, there are no changes compared to what was mentioned throughout each and every one of the last five sessions, what the Ibex has shown us is that the area of ​​the 9,300 9.350 points as round figures are resistances, it is true that we have spoken of 9,330 points on numerous occasions because these are the minimums of March and August, but the May minimums that worked as support were marked at 9,400 points. " afima José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.

"Therefore, in round figures we can talk about 9,300-9,400 points as resistance, but we insist that closing above 9,350-9,400 points (because of leaving a minimum filter) does not mean that the medium-term trend has ceased to be bearish, in fact, since the May highs we have five decreasing maximums and as sure as you can imagine, it will not go up ", adds this expert.

"Or what is the same, to be more optimistic with the current rebound we must ask our index to do something different, that at least build us a first ever maximum: for this the price should be placed, in closures and with ease, above the 9,671 points.Only above this resistance we will leave the door open to the possibility that the Ibex will try to build over time some kind of figure back up, but meanwhile what we have are impeccable maximums and decreasing minimums ", concludes Rodríguez.