The Ibex 35 has bounced back moderately and clings to 9,100 points (+ 0.27%; 9,118.20 points). However, caution continues to prevail in European exchanges, due to fear of investors that Germany will fall into recession.
- 11.503,900
- -1,46%
In this sense, the Bank of Spain has verified the national economic slowdown, by lowering its growth forecast for 2019 to 2% from the previous 2.4% established in the month of June.
The "persistence of the current sources of uncertainty" has been key in the decision taken by the agency that directs Pablo Hernández de Cos, who also recalled his GDP forecast in two tenths by 2020 (1.7%) and in a 10th by 2021 (1.6%).
After these forecasts of the BdE, the profitability of the 10-year Spanish bond has continued with its bearish path and has reached a historical 0.12%. In addition, the Spanish risk premium has dropped to 71 points.
In Germany, the IFO index has reinforced the feeling that the German economy is heading towards a recession in the third quarter due to the trade war between China and the US, which is fully affecting the industrial sector of the main locomotive in the euro zone.
David Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets, comments that "the recession in Germany is a fact" and adds that "there is increasing evidence that the eurozone will follow suit." From Oxford Economics, they claim that "the data clearly increases the risk of a German recession in the third quarter." In the currency market, the euro appreciates slightly 0.05%, up to $ 1,0997.
BUSINESS PRESENT
At the business level, the airline AIG has advanced 1.5% after the British Supreme Court has declared the closure of Parliament illegal. Political activity will resume in the United Kingdom and this further diminishes the chances that Boris Johnson can carry out his idea of a hard Brexit.
As for other developments from the UK, the Labor Party has announced that, if it wins the next elections, it will convene a second referendum in a period of six months that contemplates the option to continue in the EU.
There is also talk of British tour operator Thomas Cook and all those derived from bankruptcy ... a bankruptcy announced, on the other hand. Experts say that the company is a clear example of what happens when you do not know how to adapt to the times and changes, and talk about a very deficient management whose impact on the Spanish tourism market is very important.
Regarding China and the US, the American Secretary of State, Steven Mnuchin, has indicated that his commercial representative, Robert Lighthizer, will meet with the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister, Liu He, to hold business talks within two weeks, such and as planned.
And in the commodities market, Brent oil falls 1.7%, to $ 63.68, after weak economic activity data published in Europe and Japan. And although, according to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has recovered 75% of its production at the plants attacked last week, The Wall Street Journal has published that repairing the destroyed infrastructure will take several months longer than expected.
IBEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 35
"The Ibex 35 closes the session away from the highs of the day but in nobody's zone, far from the first support (8,960) and the most immediate resistance (9,210). If I look towards the rest of the European indexes, it seems that these have entered the reaction phase, or what is the same, they would be draining / adjusting proportionally the strong increases accumulated since the minimum of August, "argues José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.
"And if in the end this is confirmed, as it seems, our selective will fall. In fact, what I don't like in terms of very short term are the bearish divergences that we have between the price and the stochastic. Divergences that, in Normal conditions usually result in falls. Although they do not need to be very bulky, it is really enough to deploy a lateral movement that somehow lasts in time to correct the daily overbought, "adds this expert.
"What almost worries me most is that the S&P 500 is not being able to attack the historical highs (3,028), which together with the fact that it has a bullish hollow (support) at 2,937 points, makes me think that it could fall at least down to there. This is an additional 2% drop. And it would still be a minimal correction. A lot would have to happen to change things ... everything suggests that now it is time to correct the last excesses proportionally, "Rodríguez concludes.
