The Ibex is trading flat as the 'vaccine effect' fades and it awaits the ECB

Analysts do not expect changes in the ECB's monetary policy, as the body just increased its asset purchases in June. "The real focus will be on Christine Lagarde, who will use the press conference to encourage European political leaders to agree on the EU Recovery Fund at the emergency summit to be held later in the week," says Paul Diggle , Senior Economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. "However, with the money from the Recovery Fund to be disbursed gradually over a period of several years, we think that the ECB may have to return to action later this year, and a further expansion of the QE in September or December is very possible" , he ads.

Danske Bank adds in this regard that they hope that the tone of the message of the ECB is "cautiously optimistic" and warns that, after the latest improvement in macro data, the ECB could give signs that it wants to stop the flexibilization program, since the economy is recovering at a faster rate than expected. However, from Danske they warn that the market may not be prepared for a "less pigeon" message.

It should be remembered that last month the pandemic emergency purchasing program (PEPP) was increased by 600,000 million euros, to 1.35 trillion euros, and its term was extended from the end of 2020 to June 2021. It also inflation and growth forecasts were cut.

China released a series of macro data this morning. The annual GDP reading for the second quarter was 3.2%, and the consensus estimate was 2.5%. In the first quarter, the GDP reading was -6.8%. Retail sales in June were -1.8%, below the forecast of 0.3%, while the previous reading was -2.8%. Industrial production last month showed growth of 4.8%, and economists expected 4.7%. The May report was 4.4%. Investment in fixed assets fell 3.1%, and the forecast was -3.3%, taking into account that the last reading was -6.3%. Experts point out that the stock markets in Asia have had a negative day as there is concern that spending and investment in China remain weak.

As for other data released on Wednesday, the Fed's Beige Book indicates that nearly all of the 12 districts saw activity pick up as the closure restrictions eased. On the other hand, the industrial production of the United States registered a 42.6% drop in the annualized rate in the second quarter, which represents the biggest drop after the Second World War.

Finally, regarding the technical aspect of the Ibex, the selective again has the key resistance of 7,663 points close. "Very attentive to exceeding this level of supply since, if we leave it behind, profits could be extended to the level of 8,000 points, prices where the average of 200 sessions is located. This average separates the downtrend from the bullish, "emphasizes César Nuez, an analyst at Bolsamanía and head of Trader Watch.