The Ibex closes another week of consolidation without being able to attack its annual maximum

This after a week that has been very quiet (excessively quiet for the Spanish stock market, we could say), and in which the index has barely moved.

The news about the pandemic is weighing less on equities, but while other indices such as Wall Street or the Stoxx 600 continue to set records, the Ibex has been stuck in this area of ​​8,600 points and has risen just 0, 5% in the calculation of the week.

In the next few days, the results season will begin in Spain, with Enagás accounts on Tuesday and Bankinter on Friday. Today we have known the figures of Morgan Stanley on the other side of the Atlantic, and those of Bank of New York Mellon.

In the macro sphere, the highlight of this Friday has been the data from China, whose GDP shot up 18.3% in the first quarter, although the consensus expected an even higher growth, of 18.9%. On the positive side, the Asian giant's retail sales rebounded 34.2% in March, above the 28% expected.

In addition, the March CPI for the euro zone has risen to 1.3% year-on-year, while in the United States the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan has been below expectations. In addition, there is a meeting of Ecofin and the Eurogroup to see if recovery plans can be accelerated.

It should be remembered that, this Thursday, the 9.8% increase in US retail sales in March and a minimum of 576,000 weekly applications for unemployment benefits pushed the American indices to new all-time highs, while the bond markets saw Yields fall sharply, with the US 10-year declining more than 7 basis points, to a one-month low (this Friday it rose slightly to 1.58%).

THE ECB COULD WAKE THE IBEX

The Ibex has been very apathetic again this week, in line with what happened last week. It gives the impression that activity is now focused on other areas, such as bitcoin - in a week of new all-time highs for the cryptocurrency and the Coinbase IPO - and that investors prefer other more attractive markets due to their profile growth, like the German or American stock markets.

The selective continues thus consolidating levels while the technical analysts of Bolsamanía continue to think that it will attack the annual highs sooner rather than later (8,740 points). Although, discounting dividends, the index is still 15% from its previous all-time highs.

The meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) next week is one of the most relevant catalysts that could, finally, move the Spanish index. Nomura experts say that after the March meeting, in which the ECB formally announced an increase in the pace of asset purchases, there will be no further adjustments in monetary policy at this April meeting.

"We focus our attention on the inflation outlook and financing conditions," they point out. At the June meeting, the ECB will have to decide whether to keep bond purchases at the current weekly rate or to start reducing them. "Taking into account our inflation forecast, and considering the current financing conditions, we believe that the ECB will probably continue to buy at a similar rate to the current one at least until September 2021", they point out.

OTHER MARKETS

The euro rises in value 0.1% and trades at 1.1980 dollars. The European currency rises at a time when the US has imposed restrained sanctions on Russia. Joe Biden has said that he does not want an escalation with Russia.

Oil is down slightly, with Brent at $ 66.70 and West Texas at $ 63.10.

Gold and silver are up, to $ 1,777 and $ 26.03, respectively.

Bitcoin yields to $ 60,877 (-3.88%) and Ethereum to $ 2,398 (-3.12%).

The yield of the 10-year American bond stands at 1.575% and that of the 10-year Spanish bond rises to 0.38%.