The Ibex starts March with 1% falls after dropping 6% in February

In the Ibex, the falls of Ferrovial (3.3%) have to be highlighted after the company presented results that Deutsche Bank rated as low quality. The German bank has reiterated its sell advice.

Also sales from Amadeus (-3.1%), Indra (-3%) and Acciona (-2.5%), followed by Bankinter(-1.8%), Mapfre (-1.4%), Sabadell (-1.3%), BBVA (-1.2%), Bankia (-1.2%), Santander (-1.1%), Repsol(-1%), Inditex (-1%) and Repsol (-0,5%). In the main board the OHL falls over a 10% after presenting results that haven’t been liked.

In the rising values, Aena (+2%) led the rises in the Ibex after receiving a buy rating from Deutsche Bank, that has increased its value by 12% up to 190 euros per share. These experts have also considered the value a top pic in the infrastructure sector after increasing its value by 70%. Also Aena, Acerinox (+1.2%), IAG (+1.1%) and Colonial (1%) are the most profitable.

A CAREFUL MONTH OF MARCH

What we have to see now is where the global stocks are moving towards and specifically where the Ibex is going now that it has closed February with 6% falls and had its worst month since Brexit. As for the rest of Europe, it hasn’t fared much better. The stocks of the Old Continent have dropped a 5% on average. Regarding the US, during the month of February the S&P has fallen a 4% as well as the Dow Jones. The Nasdaq has only fallen a (1.5%).

Therefore, there are big expectations to what awaits for the month of March that starts with two key dates (Italian elections and the SPD vote in Germany for the approval of the coalition government) and it will finish with the meeting of the Fed where it will raise the interest rates for the first time this year.

During March, there will be a key meeting of the ECB on March 8, Inditex will publish its results and other political dates like the XIII Popular Assembly of China or the presidential elections in Russia.

POWELL AND LAGARDE

Special mention for Jerome Powell that has addressed the Senate today to talk about economy and monetary policy. The president of the Fed has tried to sound more amicable for the stocks and has said “there are no evidences that the economy is reheating itself”. Still he has stressed the need to normalize the monetary policy to lengthen the growth period as much as possible as inflation rises to 2%.

On the other hand, the IMF director Christine Lagarde has said there is a risk of overheating in the US after the Trump tax reform. The economy is growing at full capacity and it could overheat with salary and inflation rises that mean a hardening of monetary policy and rate rises.

ECONOMIC REFERENCES

As for other dates in the agenda this Thursday, today the manufacturing PMI is published in Europe 58.6 over 58.5 expected(the Spanish PMI has remained at 56 versus the 54.7 expected). In Spain GDP grows a 3.1% in 2017 to historical highs.

Also the unemployment rate of the EuroZone has been made known at 8.6% like expected. In the US the consumer price index known as PCE the inflation measure most followed by the Fed has bounced back a 0.3% in January and has maintained in 1.5% interannual rate, in line with predictions but far away from the 2% established by the central bank.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

“A new session of falls for the Ibex that pushes us away from the resistance at 9,900 points. It places us in no-man's-land. Midway from support 9,580 and resistance 9,937 points. In any case we still can’t manage to lead our path further than one-off sessions”, said José María Rodríguez, expert analyst at Bolsamanía.

“The breaking through of the year lows leaves the doors open for a continuity in falls with an objective in 9,250 points. While going over the 9,937 would open doors to keep bouncing back towards resistances, the most important one being the 10,210. The problem is that even when it bounces back to 10,200 points everything fits today in a simple bounce back and that is all. We don’t have a recovery figure or anything that points out our built floor”, concludes Rodríguez.