The Ibex rises 3% in the week to 9,900 points despite the trade war

The trade war has become a reality this Friday with the entry into force of tariffs between the United States and China. Around €34bn in tariffs have been activated today in both directions, because China has already said that it will respond by also applying rates for the value of those 34bn to American products.

Also, the Russian Ministry of Economy has announced retaliatory measures against the increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum declared by the North American country.

However, the European stock markets have remained rather calm throughout the day. Of course, although they have been dyed red for the most part, they have turned around towards the end of the session and closed with soft gains, as well as the Ibex.

EARNINGS AND LOSES

However, the value that has increased this session has been Enagás (+ 2.30%). It was followed by Cie Automotive (+ 2.20%), despite the fact that it is exposed to the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose a 20% tariff on automobile imports, and Meliá Hotels (+1 , 97%).

Another bullish value has been Acerinox, which has a positive impact on the tariff package implemented this Friday from the North American country (60% of its EBITDA is generated there).

For its part, ACS has risen 1.20% after being awarded a project in North America for €2.6bn jointly with Fluor. Meanwhile, the 'red lantern' of the session was Técnicas Reunidas (-2.81%), followed by Bankia (-1.94%) and Indra (-1.56%).

COMMERCIAL WAR AND MACROECONOMY

"The key market event on Friday is the application of US tariffs to Chinese imports." It will be interesting for the markets to see how President Donald Trump reacts to Chinese retaliation measures and if he goes ahead with his plan to add tariffs by value. of 200bn dollars on Chinese products, "the experts at Danske Bank explained early on.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, published this Thursday, picked up the alert of the institution on the growing risks that the economic protectionism of Trump has on the growth of the United States. They also showed that there is consensus among its members about the need to continue raising interest rates gradually.

The Employment Report for June in the United States was another of the key events today. The unemployment rate in the country has risen to 4%, despite having created 213,000 jobs in the sixth month of the year. Meanwhile, wages rebounded 2.7% last month in year-on-year terms, slightly below the estimate of the market consensus (2.8%).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

José María Rodríguez, technical analyst of Bolsamanía, recalls that "we closed the week with accumulated gains close to 2.5% and after the beginning that made us fear the worst, awakening a bearish gap and testing the support that the Ibex had in the environment of 9,430 points, the base of the triangle to which we have been referring days / weeks ago ".

"But the most important thing is that now we have three points of support in the support line that joins the successive minimums since March, or what is the same, now we can talk about a small short-term bullish guideline," he explains. the expert. He adds that "there are many resistances that converge at the moment: the June highs at 9,985 points and above the daily MM200, now at 10,016 points."

"But, in addition, the area of ​​10,100 points corresponds to the upper part of the short-term triangle in which the Ibex is embedded, but in order to be able to speak of a before and after in the Ibex 35, we will demand that it jump above the 10,290 points, the May highs, "says Rodríguez.

"Punctual corrections aside, the sensations are not bad as it seems that Telefonica has awakened, finally, and we also have a small figure back (with bullish implications) in BBVA, which as you know tends to work very well as an advance title of our Ibex , for the better or for worse, "concludes a technical analyst.