The Ibex rises 1.6% in the week and increases in value almost 4% in 2019

Investors, expectant of what happens in the UK with Brexit

Bolsamanía
Bolsamania | 11 ene, 2019 09:55 - Actualizado: 18:16
jerome powell federal

The Ibex 35 has risen 0.23% to 8,877.10 points on the last day of a week in which it has risen in value by 1.6%. So far this year, the index accumulates a rise of 3.94%. Daily movements have been quite mild, but investors are keeping an eye on what may happen next Tuesday, in the British Parliament vote on Brexit. The political uncertainty on this issue is so high that it is difficult to predict how European stock exchanges will behave.

IBEX 35
11.473,900
  • 0,33%38,20
  • Max: 11.485,70
  • Min: 11.446,20
  • Volume: -
  • MM 200 : 11.294,32
14:00 24/12/24

In terms of business news, the airline IAG (+ 3.28%) led the gains, followed by Mediaset España (+ 2.9%), which continues to benefit from Mediaset's takeover bid. Among the large stocks, BBVA rebounded 1.04%, followed by Santander (+ 0.18%) and Telefónica (+ 0.12%).

On a negative note, the most bearish values ​​were Técnicas Reunidas (-2.65%), after a rating cut by JP Morgan, Bankinter (-2.23%) and Bankia (-1.44%). In addition, Inditex was down 0.26% and Repsol 0.17%.

In the currency market, the euro falls 0.26% against the dollar, up to $1.1470, after marking on Wednesday maximums of the last two and a half months against the 'greenback'.

And in the commodities market, Brent oil has ended its grand rally since the beginning of the year, falling by 1.7% to $60.62. Finally, in the debt market, the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond has eased slightly to 1.454%, after the Government approved the draft Budgets for 2019, although without sufficient support for its approval.

AT THE CENTRE, THE CENTRAL BANKS

Central banks are clear protagonists at the end of this week. Jerome Powell has said that the Fed will be "patient" in the rate hikes and the latest minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) lead to believe there will be a delay in rising rates until the end of the year. Both central banks want to go slower and that is good news for equities.

Wall Street yesterday increased the rises after listening to Powell (Dow Jones: + 0.51%, S & P: + 0.45%, Nasdaq: + 0.42%), while in Asia have also predominated green numbers this morning.

Experts stress this "patience" of central banks on Friday. Jasper Lawler, an analyst at the London Capital Group, points out that a more 'dovish' Fed and the optimism of the US-China trade negotiations have boosted the appetite for risk. "However, there are signs that the five-day Wall Street rally is starting to run out," he warns.

Michael Hewson, head of analysis at CMC Markets in London, adds that the closure of the US government, which seems to extend even more over time, is an additional obstacle to prolong the rally. "Investors worry that the 'deadlock' will begin to affect consumer confidence," he says.

BREXIT, BREXIT AND BREXIT

In Europe, the week ends with investors very aware of what happens with Theresa May's plan for Brexit, which will be voted on in the British Parliament next Tuesday and which will foreseeably be rejected. The market begins to show its concern about how this will affect not only the global economy but, in particular, the different companies. In recent days there has been a lot of talk about airlines and what will happen with their 'modus operandi' in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

"If May loses the vote on Tuesday we enter unexplored territory," the Danske Bank experts warn. May will be forced to submit a plan B within three days if she loses the vote. "The problem remains that there is no credible alternative that has the support of the majority of the House," these analysts insist.

As for Friday's agenda, industrial production in Spain has returned to negative rates after collapsing 2.8% in November. For its part, the sale of homes has moderated its increase in November to 2.8%. In the UK, the British economy has cooled in the three months to November, expanding at its weakest pace in six months. In the US, the CPI for December has fallen by one tenth, to bring the annual American inflation to 1.9%, in line with the forecasts.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

"Mild rises of 0.23% in the Ibex 35, which remains very close to the resistance of the 8,974 points, we are still very aware of trying to overcome this price level, which would make us think of an attack at the key level of the 9.262 points, prices where the average of 200 sessions is found, it would be great news to overcome this average for its technical aspect in this first quarter of the year, "says César Nuez, an analyst at Bolsamanía.

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