The Ibex (-0.1%) cannot go after 9.200 as Brexit unceirtainty looms

Questions surround the chaotic process for the United Kingdom to leave the EU

Bolsamanía
Bolsamania | 12 mar, 2019 09:49 - Actualizado: 18:15
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Joy regarding the last minute agreement changes between Theresa May and the European Union have lasted very little. The moderate first-rate rises have dissipated, also in the Ibex 35 (-0.11%, to 9,161.70 points), which has suffered the additional pressure of Telefónica's falls (the operator has left a 0.86 % due to an unfavorable report by Berenberg).

IBEX 35
11.473,900
  • 0,33%38,20
  • Max: 11.485,70
  • Min: 11.446,20
  • Volume: -
  • MM 200 : 11.294,32
14:00 24/12/24

In addition, Inditex (-0.34%) remains in the spotlight waiting for this Wednesday to publish its results for the fourth fiscal quarter and for the entire 2018 fiscal year. Experts are more optimistic for this quarter than for the third since they expect a lower negative impact of currencies, although it is common for the company to record sudden movements on the day of publication of its results.

The most bullish values ​​of the Ibex have been those related to raw materials. Acerinox has rebounded 1.5%, followed by steel giant ArcelorMittal (-1.4%). Good day also for electricity companies such as Iberdrola (+ 1%) and Endesa (+ 0.9%).

In negative, falls were outstanding for Meliá Hotels (-2.7%), due to the perception that it may be one of the most affected companies if a hard Brexit is produced together with the airline IAG (-1.3%).

In other markets, Brent oil rose 0.3% to $ 66.76, while an ounce of gold rose 0.5% to $ 1,297. For its part, the euro increased in value 0.38% to $ 1,1288. In addition, the Spanish risk premium rises 2%, up to 112 points, while the yield of the Spanish 10-year bond advances to 1.19%.

HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT BREXIT

"The new agreement (between May and the EU) gives the United Kingdom new guarantees that the European Union can not maintain the containment barrier forever, for example by not entering into negotiations on its future relationship, as well as the EU and the UK. The United Kingdom agreed to accelerate negotiations on the future relationship, which, hopefully, makes the protection mechanism unnecessary, Juncker said the EU will not negotiate further, "the Danske Bank analysts explain in their daily report.

Be that as it may, Brexit is the 'big issue' of this day. The vote in the British Parliament will take place around eight o'clock in the afternoon. "We still expect May to suffer a defeat despite this new agreement, and if it is rejected, the next step will be for the UK Parliament to vote on a possible exit without an agreement on Wednesday," they added.

We remind that if the vote on Wednesday also failed, on Thursday the delay of the departure date would be voted. It is speculated that this will be the vote that finally comes through.

All this, after Wall Street ended last session with solid gains (2% on the Nasdaq, 1.4% on the S & P and 0.8% on the Dow) despite the whole Boeing crisis over the accident with one of his planes 737.

Although this Tuesday the aircraft manufacturer falls again with force, because several countries such as China, United Kingdom and Germany have decided to ban the flights of the aircraft affected by the accident.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

"Little can be highlighted from the session on Tuesday from the point of view of technical analysis, the movements have been very narrow and the only thing we can say is that the level of the 9,200 points has worked, to the cent, as resistance, before support, although we have a bigger resistance at the top, in this Friday's bearish hole: the 9,250 points, "explains José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.

"The good thing about the current moment is that, although the correction is being limited, the stochastic moment oscillator is already approaching overweight readings, if you remember, at the end of February we said that what we did not like was that the Ibex was facing major resistance, exhausted, with an important overweight level, well, now we have the opposite, without falling into strong reversals, we are close to overbooking (daily, not weekly) and that leaves the door open for a restructuring upwards", adds this expert.

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