The Ibex recovers the 10,300 points awaiting the electoral result in Catalonia

The selective is falling at this time (-.43%. 10,163 points) after finishing on Wednesday on 10,200 points. The analysts believe that if the result is an electoral draw it would leave the Ibex as it is more or less. Of course, if the elections were to end in an separatist result, falls are predicted in the Spanish index down to 10,000 pints. If on the contrary the constitutionalists win, then the selective would go to 10,600 points according to experts.

The true reaction of the Ibex will be seen on Friday, with the results already on the table. Then the direct impact on the stocks may be checked

The Ibex has abandoned caution and has started to rise a little before the closing of the session. The selective has managed to recover the 10,300 points (10,304) after rising a 0.95% in a decisive session due to the Catalan elections. Nevertheless, the true reaction of the Ibex will be seen this Friday with the results already on the table. Then the direct impact of this electoral date on the markets will be checked.

Ferrovial has led the rises after going up a 2.83%. The company got on Wednesday the necessary financing for its largest project to the date in Australia. Also in green CaixaBank (+2.15%) and ArcelorMittal (+1.93%).

On their part, Telefónica (+0.47%) has managed to close in green after having placed itself in the worst figures of the Ibex during a large part of the session.

In red, we can highlight Viscofan (-0.43%), Cellnex (-0.3%) and DIA (-0.09%). As for Iberdrola, that had listed in red right up until the close, has closed with light rises of 0.06% in spite of AlphaValue cutting a 7% in its value down to 6.74 euros.

In the Continuous Market, Unicaja has closed with a rise of 0.92% after Santander Am having entered its capital with a participation of 3.033%. As for MásMóvil, they have closed with a fall of 0.23% after having completed the process of refinancing of senior syndicated credit for 386m.

STOCK REACTION TO 21-D

The true reaction of the Ibex will be seen this Friday, with the results over the table. Only then will the direct impact on the stocks could be checked and specially in all the figures linked in one way or another with Cataluña. The experts warn that it will be the banks the ones that better reflect the electoral result, so an eye will have to be kept out especially for Sabadell and CaixaBank, and also for BBVA the third Spanish entity with more offices in Catalonia.

The analysts believe that if the result is an electoral draw this will leave the Ibex more or less at the current levels. If there is a clear triumph from the separatists it’s forecast that the Spanish index will fall down below 10,000 points. If on the contrary the constitutionalists get a majority then the selective will go for the 10,600 points according to the experts.

“A separatist government, with or without the support of the CeC Podem, is the most probable scenery according to the last surveys. The surveys also say that the separatist front would reduce in terms of votes and number of MPs in comparison with the previous elections in 2015. In the case that the absolute majority doesn’t exist for any of the fronts, and assuming that Podemos decides not to involve its vote, new elections in the second trimester of 2018 cannot be cast aside,” point out the Barclays expert.

EUROPEAN STOCKS AND THE US

In Europe, at the close of the session green lanterns can be seen with the FTSE100 leading the rises with a 1.05% of revaluation, which has allowed to set a new record. Only the Lisbon stock has closed in red with light losses of 0.19%.

As for the rest, the other news of the day comes from the US with that definite approval of Trump’s tax reform bill which is already a fact. Wall Street finished on Wednesday with light falls after the confirmation of the news (Dow Jones: -0.11%; S&P: -0.08%; Nadaq: -0.04%).

As for the daily calendar, the Bank of Japan has maintained the rates without changes in the -0.1%. The most relevant reference of the day would be the US’ third trimester GDP.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In José María Rodríguez’s opinion, the technical analyst in Bolsamania, the session this Thursday has been “promising”. For him, the interesting topic of the session has been that “the Ibex has placed itself at the doors of resistance at 10,380 points and over that it would have a free way to the key resistance of 10,600 points”. Over this level, Jose María Rodríguez believes that the index will be “a clear figure in return of double bottom, with a minimal projection in the annual maximums, the 11,185 points”.

Finally, he insists that tomorrow’s session on Friday will be decisive, if the Ibex closes in red or closes with rises. “It goes without saying that after jumping over the 10,600 points, we would have a before and an after in our index”.