The Ibex yields 0.7% pressured by Indra and IAG and looking towards central banks

Indra and IAG have fallen with great force this Monday. The first dropped 7% and the second, 2.8%. In the case of Indra, it is speculated that it will need an extension to buy ITP and that has not pleased the market. As for IAG, it has fallen dragged by the Lufthansa profit warning, which in turn has plummeted 11%. Although IAG has been among the most moderate in Europe, as the declines have been more pronounced in other airlines such as Ryanair or EasyJet that have lost over 4%.

The best performers were Ence and TCie Automotive, which have risen by 0.8% and were leading the Spanish hikes.

All this while the Ibex dropped 0.68%, which has managed to maintain the level of 9,100 points. But other European stocks have closed higher (Cac: + 0.6%, Dax: + 0.05%, Ftse 100: + 0.2%, Ftse Mib: + 0.3%) and Wall Street has started the day with slight increases before a week that will be absolutely conditioned by central banks.

Bankers meet in Sintra (Portugal) between Monday and Wednesday. In addition, there will be a Fed rate meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday) and also a Bank of England rate meeting (Thursday). Three appointments of great interest that will be seasoned by the meeting of the European Council on Thursday or the 'four-hour witch' on Friday. Events for all tastes that will undoubtedly affect the stock markets which are already feeling hesitant.

"Even without a Fed rate cut, this week's meeting will be interesting because it will publish new economic projections and the chart of interest rate expectations at a time of considerable uncertainty," says Craig Erlam, an analyst at Oanda.

"We hope that this week the Fed will prepare the markets for a cut in July and a total rate reduction of 75 basis points in the second quarter," say experts at Danske Bank. "By the end of the week there are important decisions at the EU summit," they add.

In the business world, Telepizza held today its general meeting of shareholders where it has given 'green light' to its exclusion from the stock market and an extraordinary dividend of 131m euros. And it has announced that it expects to close this year with sales of over 1.2bn euros and a gross operating result (EBITDA) between 75 and 80 million euros.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The "downward drip from the highs of last week (9,332) continues and falls are nearing 2%" explains José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.com. Correction that, on the other hand, "fits within the normal parameters". Why? Because the previous rises were 5%. Now, "what I like the most is the accuracy of the resistance level where the Ibex was stopped", at 9,330-9,335 points.

"There we have an important resistance and, above, the 9,410 points (weekly bearish hollow)" adds the expert. So if in the short term we saw the index close above the 9.335 points "we could say that this would be giving shape to an inverted 'head and shoulders', a figure that would send it, at least, up to the annual highs ( 9,588) ".

If it makes a previous stop "in the very strong intermediate resistances from the daily and weekly downturn at 9,410 points, or in other words, a close above 9,410 points this would, in theory, be a clear and strong signal of strength". The truth is that the sensations "are not bad, just the opposite". Especially due to the fact that the correction "stopped at the level of adjustment / recession between 50% and 61.8% of the previous upward momentum", he concludes.

It is worth remembering that this same Sunday marks the third anniversary of the Brexit referendum. In addition, on Monday, June 24, it will be three years since the Ibex recorded its largest intraday decline in history (-12.35%) for that same reason. Three years later, things are still the same in the United Kingdom, with Boris Johnson, supporter of a hard Brexit, emerging as the favorite to replace Theresa May at the head of the party and the country.

As if all this were not enough, on Thursday there will also be a decision by the Bank of Japan. "Kuroda, of the Bank of Japan, has already warned that the lower expectations of the Federal Reserve and, therefore, a stronger Japanese yen, could lead to further stimulus in Japan," says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at London Capital Group.

As for the specific calendar of this Monday, watch out for Draghi, who will speak at 7:00 pm Spanish time to inaugurate the Forum of Central Banks of Sintra.

In the meantime, in other markets, oil registers declines. The Brent barrel a benchmark in Europe falls 0.25% and trades below 62 dollars and Texas, yields 0.3% but maintains 52 dollars. In the currency market, the euro gains positions against the dollar (+ 0.23%) and changes by 1.123 and against the pound (+ 0.5%) while the pound continues to trade above the 0.89 units against the euro, after chaining a six-week losing streak to its European counterpart.