The Ibex is unable to recover the 9,600 points

Once the two electoral results in Italy and Germany this Sunday have been “digested”, investors now wait for the ECB meeting on Thursday, where it will offer more details on the withdrawal of stimulus. Until that moment comes, the stocks have lived a downwards trajectory today (the Ibex falls 0.04% down to 9,586.80 points), after Wall Street swung low too.

The highest risers of the Ibex have been Indra (+2.8%), Amadeus (+2.5%) and Cellnex (+2.1%). Also in green Bankia (+1.1%) and BBVA (+0.6%), after José María Goirigolzarri has commented on the Financial Times that the bank it leads would fit perfectly in the entity led by his previous boss, Francisco González. A surprising statement that some analysts like those of AlphaValue consider a mistake since they confuse the market.

A good day today for big values like Repsol (+0.9%) and Inditex (+0.3%) and Telefónica(+0.1%), while Santander (-0.36%) and Iberdrola (-0.9%) list in negative. Although the lowest fallers are Acciona (-1.98%), Endesa (-1.96%), Mediaset España (-1.54%) y Ferrovial(-1.26%).

In the main board the renewable energy firm Audax (+6%) and Solaria (+5%) are the most profitable, while Oryzon Genomics and Service Point fall over 3%

GERMANY, ITALY, TRUMP AND NORTH KOREA…

In Germany it looks like things are going well (DAX 30 +1%) and after the ‘yes’ from the SPD to the grand coalition, Angela Merkel will be approved as Chancellor for the fourth time on March 14. Although it has reduced its profits by 0.5%.

In Italy it’s a different story. The formation of a government is going to be extremely complicated and there are talks of new elections after the summer. In any case, Italy is Italy and the market is not worried about politics that have always been complicated. In fact, this monday the MIB Ftse managed to rise 1.8%.

Regarding the trade war proposed by Donald Trump, we must point out that the US president is thinking about celebrating a press conference in the White House tonight, at 21:30 Spanish time, he will be joined by the Swedish president. “He will probably be asked to comment on the trade war proposal with Europe and China… sparks may fly”, points out Jack Blanchard from Politico.

Returning to Europe, on Tuesday the Brexit negotiations in Brussels continue. Chief negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier, will meet the executive directed of the FMI for Europe and with the leader of the DUP Arlene Foster. In London, the British PM Theresa May, and the Brexit secretary David Davis will meet Guy Verhofstadt in the European Parliament.

Finally, North Korea is in the news because it has agreed to resume talks with South Korea for the first time in 10 years with the objective of improving their bilateral relations. According to a South Korean delegate, the Pyongyang regime has also shown interest in negotiating its surrender of nuclear weapons against the U.S, a dramatic change regarding these past months that have been ruled by tension.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

“The Ibex 35 closes practically at session lows after having risen in value a 1%. This confirms the idea that our index has received a strong blow and is very weak. And that nowadays all moves upwards end up being a simple rebound”, says José María Rodríguez, analyst of Bolsamanía.

“In my opinion it is irrelevant if March will be a month of rebounds or not. There has to be rebounds and of some importance, not 1%. The oversold daily and weekly levels are very important and even to continue correcting we need strong rebounds against the current trend. Nothing falls forever without its appropriate rebound”, concludes the expert.

“Although, even when the Ibex fights for the 9,900 or even the 10,200 points (where there is an important weekly bearish gap) we would be talking about simple rebounds. And today is the day where there is no return value of any kind (and we don’t expect it), the index is telling us that the most important resistance is that which will make us talk of a change of tendency in the Ibex 35 and we find it in the 10,600 points, 1000 points over what we are currently at.