Ibex trades lower focused on Draghi's speech

An atypical week begins (Ibex: + 0.4%) in which there will be no reference to Wall Street on Thursday (for Thanksgiving), while on Friday, US markets will close earlier (19:00 Madrid). This circumstance will also be noticed in the European stocks as trading volume will be lower than usual.

Ibex 35 starts Monday too close to the support of 8,540 points after a 1.09% fall on Friday, carried by banks - especially Santander and BBVA - but also by Telefónica. Strong declines in Italian banks (especially on Thursday and Friday of last week) affected the entire sector in Europe and, therefore, Spanish entities. Concern over what may happen next December 4th in the Italian referendum, which will show whether the Italians approve or not the constitutional changes proposed by Matteo Renzi, is weighing heavily on the market. Polls say that it will win the "no", something that could trigger the resignation of Renzi.

Oil will continue playing a key role in the five sessions ahead of the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting next Wednesday in Vienna. It is very likely that, over the course of this week, we will again witness declarations by heads of state and countries. Furthermore, it is expected that the meeting will ratify the production cut agreed at the end of September. Even so, analysts have doubts that, if agreement is finally reached, it will end up respecting.

The Italian referendum is not the only political rendezvous that markets have in mind. 2017 will start with the elections in France and in September will be held in Germany. In France, former President Nikolas Sarkozy has admitted defeat in the primaries for the presidential election. The second round to select the candidate will be disputed next weekend by Francois Fillon and Alain Juppe.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed the expectation that she will run for a fourth term. Meanwhile, the German economy should slow in the last quarter of this year, after a solid performance in the first six months of 2016, according to the German Ministry of Finance.