The Ibex (+ 0.5%) recovers the 7,100 driven by Inditex but weighed down by banks

The Ibex 35 has risen 0.54%, to 7,108.60 points, after marking a minimum of 7,080 integers and a maximum of 7,209. The selective, after the break on Easter Monday, has received the push from Inditex but has been weighed down by the two big banks, Santander and BBVA. However, it has continued its comeback since the lows in March thanks to the slowdown in the coronavirus pandemic, both in Spain and in other European countries. Furthermore, better-than-expected data in China (trade balance and exports and imports) have also helped.

One of the news of the day has been that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its macroeconomic estimates for Spain on Tuesday and has worsened them significantly as a result of the impact of Covid-19, so it now expects it to close 2020 with an unemployment of 20.8% and a fall of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 8%.

"It is a crisis like no other," said IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, who has warned that, to the magnitude of the 'shock', we must add the uncertainty about its duration or intensity. "The global economy is very likely to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression [of the 1930s], out of sight during the global financial crisis of a decade ago. The Great Seclusion, as you might call it, is expected to decrease the global growth in a dramatic way, "added Gopinath.

EVOLUTION OF THE CORONAVIRUS

Experts highlight as a favorable aspect in the short term the drop in mortality in the different countries of the world, although today in Spain there has been another rise in the number of deaths, to 567 deaths.

At the same time, containment measures are extended. France announced on Monday that it extends the confinement until May 11, while India has communicated that it does the same until May 3. Italy decided several days ago to extend it also until May 3.

Faced with this, Donald Trump has announced that his administration will issue a guide for governors who want to relax restrictions on social distancing in the coming days, and has declared that he hopes to open the US again "ahead of schedule."

"Against this backdrop, the very idea that we've seen the bottom of the stocks would surely be considered an illusion, especially since hundreds of businesses are likely to find it difficult to survive these long closings," Hewson warns.

The issue of business results will be key this week and throughout the next precisely to check the impact of the virus on the sta of businesses. The season on the other side of the Atlantic has started with the figures of the American banks. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have released theirs this Tuesday. The JP Morgan CEO has defended the strength of its results in a very difficult scenario.

Regarding oil, the price war seems to be history after that announcement of a historic cut of 9.7 million barrels per day, which, however, does not seem to fully satisfy the market. Aware of this, Trump continues to generate expectations. In a tweet, he commented that OPEC and Russia will cut production by 20 million barrels a day. However, Brent crude falls sharply 4% to $ 30.26.

Finally, note the escalation in gold, which has hit highs of more than seven years and is trading above $ 1,765 an ounce. Technically, it has a clear path to $ 1,920. In addition, the euro appreciated 0.43% and changes to $ 1.0960, while the yield on the 10-year US bond rebounded to 0.81%.

IBEX ANALYSIS

"We already have the Ibex on the brink of the first major resistance that we have been talking about in recent weeks: the last bearish hole left in the fall, 7,340-7,350 points, coinciding with an adjustment / fall of 38.2% of the previous fall ", argues José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.

"Which leaves the doors open for us to take a break from here, from the hole. Although there is the possibility that if it closes, only then will we look at the next control area above, the 8,000 points (50 % Proportional Adjustment) ", adds this expert.

"And in the meantime, Wall Street remains very strong, with a rebound from the March lows of 30% for the S&P 500."