The Ibex, lagging behind due to pressure from electric sector and Telefonica

The Ibex 35 closed with slight falls of 0.27%, to 8,823 points, while the rest of the indices of the Old Continent rose more than 0.5%. The Spanish selective has been penalized by the falls in the electricity (Endesa: -1.07%, Iberdrola: -1.04%, Naturgy: -0.66%) and also in Telefonica (-2.04%), while stock markets in general have advanced thanks to an optimistic climate related to the negotiations that the US and China are holding to reach a trade agreement.

Within the Ibex, the increases in Técnicas Reunidas have stood out (+ 5.21%, although it has come to a rise in value of over 8%) after announcing new contracts for a value close to 1bn dollars.

Another very bullish value has been Indra, which has advanced more than 4.83% after knowing that it will play a relevant role in all the modernization programs of the Spanish Armed Forces, according to infodefensa.com. In addition, CIE Automotive (+ 2.85%) and ArcelorMittal (+ 2.29%) registered outstanding hikes.

POSITIVE TONE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA

The first round of trade talks between the US and China has ended positively and has been interpreted by the markets as a sign of progress. The comments from both sides continue to indicate that the discussions are going "very well".

"It is likely that an agreement is still far away, with many laps to overcome along the way, however, the extension is a step in the right direction, as it sends a signal that both parties are in serious negotiations and are working hard to solve problems, "says Jasper Lawler, an analyst at the London Capital Group.

Craig Erlam, an expert from Oanda, already talks about an "unusual streak" in the markets, although he admits that market sentiment remains "unstable". Despite this, it considers that "we are currently experiencing a kind of recovery" and "blames" it to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its "more cautious" approach to interest rate rises.

In relation to monetary policy, the president of the Fed of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, has given a great boost to the euro by commenting that interest rates in the US can move "in any direction", which opens the door even to a lower rates in the coming months. The community currency rises in value 0.64% against the dollar, up to $ 1.1515, and marks a two-month high.

In his speech from the oval office on Tuesday, Donald Trump has reaffirmed his position defending the wall on the border with Mexico. Thus, it seems that the shutdown of the US Government will continue. In this sense, Fitch has warned the US that it could cut its rating if the Administration's closure persists.

FROM OIL TO BREXIT

Optimism about the talks between China and the United States is also boosting oil, which rises for the eighth consecutive day (Brent barrel: + 2.2% to $ 60.02). After a December to forget, oil is bouncing strongly in this start of 2019 in the hands of investors who are increasingly confident that China and the US will end the trade war.

On the other hand, in the United Kingdom the deputies begin to debate this Wednesday in the British Parliament the agreement of Theresa May for Brexit before the vote scheduled for next Tuesday. "Unless there is some kind of late intervention from Europe (...), I can hardly see an approval of the agreement next week, since nothing has changed since May shamefully postponed the vote in December for fear of a crushing defeat Therefore, the pound will remain very vulnerable in the coming weeks and even beyond, assuming that May's agreement fails, as expected, "adds Erlam.

Regarding the data of the day, the unemployment of the Euro Zone fell by 7.9% in November, to minimums of a decade and below the 8% predicted by the consensus. In addition, German exports for November fell by 0.4%, slightly above the 0.3% expected.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

"It is increasingly difficult for the Ibex to rise, which is logical given that since the minimums at the end of December it has accumulated a 7% rise and in the same period the S & P 500 has risen by 10% and we can say that we have Wall Street at the door of a significant resistance, those levels that once acted as support: this is the 2,600 points of the S & P 500 and 23,800-24,000 points of the Dow Jones ", says José María Rodríguez, technical analyst of Bolsamania.

"What it means is that, in theory, we should not be shouting if we see corrections coming in. In the case of our selective one, we can say that we still have a margin to rise to the rebound resistance area we have in the vicinity of the 9,200 points, although given the verticality of the rebound would not be strange that before we took a short break, "adds Rodriguez.

"But for the record, we are not talking about a change in trend, for the moment, everything is still part of a rebound, nothing else", concludes Rodriguez.