Inditex supports the Ibex waiting for Yellen and Draghi

The Ibex 35 has closed with moderate losses (-0.27 to 10,260.50 points) in a session marked by the Inditex results in which investors have stayed out of the market until knowledge of what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will say this afternoon and what the European Central Bank will say this Thursday. The falls have been similar in the rest of the big European stocks.

Zara’s mother company has gone up a 1.72% and has been the highest rising value of the Ibex after publishing its accounts of the first nine months of its financial exercise, between February 1 and October 31. The group has registered net earnings of 2,341m euros, a 6% above the same period last year. Data in line with the forecasts of Factset of 2,346m. After Inditex, DIA (+1.22%) and Siemens Gamesa (+1,09%) have been the biggest risers.

Also, Bankia picks up a 0.5%, after the Norwegian sovereign fund, Norges Bank, has resulted in a 3.2% of participation in its capital, after the 7% sale carried out by the FROB this week. Norges Bank is the first institutional shareholder that declares a participation over 3% on the bank chaired by José Ignacio Goirigolzarri.

Among the lowest values, the 1.5% falls of Gas Natural Fenosa stand out. The analysis of JPMorgan have bettered their assessment to 19.30 euros from 18.20 euros per share, but they have anticipated a hard outlook for the company starting from 2021. Furthermore, they consider that the market has discounted the distribution of an extraordinary dividend valued in 1,500m euros after the las sales of assets valued in 3,000m. Other falling values from the Ibex are Acciona (-1.5%), Sabadell (-1.2%) and Iberdrola (-1%). Also, Telefónica falls a 0.4%, Santander a 0.3% and Repsol a 0.25%.

In the continuous market, the rises in Dogi (+5%), eDreams (+3%) and Duro Felguera (+2%) stand out and the falls of Oryzon Genomics (-5%), Reunited Tubes (-3%) and Codere (-2.8%).

Regarding the Spanish risk premium, it picks up a 2% up to 117 points. Regarding the autonomic elections that are celebrated next week in Catalonia and which results are still a mystery, the experts in Link Securities state that “the belligerence that the independence parties are showing in the electoral campaign is not being well received by investors, that see this attitude as reason for worry after the elections”.

FED, PETROL AND ECONOMY

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the main character this Wednesday. The organization chaired by Janet Yellen celebrates its last meeting of the year to approach the US monetary policy. It all points to the Fed to make money’s price more expensive. The market, obviously, doesn’t expect any different. It discounts a rise of a quarter of a point that would place the price of money in the US at a 1.25-1.50% in the monetary conclave in December. It would be the third increase of the year after the ones in March and June.

Petrol will also monopolize the investors gaze. The crude Brent falls a 0.2% down to 63.20 dollars. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has anticipated that the balance between offer and demand will be reached by the end of 2018, when it has planned to finish its production cuts.

This is how the las monthly report detaches from 2017 from the petrol organization, where it has updated its forecasts for the crude global market, in which it has also reduced its estimate of global demand of its ‘black gold’ in 2018 to 270,000 barrels a day to 33.15m barrels a day.

In the macro agenda this Wednesday, the CPI in the United States has picked up to the interanual 2.2% in November, although the underlying inflation has decreased a decimal down to interanual 1.7%. The interanual inflation rate in Germany has also been made known, and it has risen slightly from 1.8% to 1.6% in november.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IBEX 35

“This Wednesday’s session, closing far away from this day’s maximums, doesn’t leave us with a good feeling in very short term. As for everything else, it’s all the same: constructing minimus and short term maximums (rising tendency) with the gaze set on the key resistance of 10,600 points”, states José María Rodríguez, analyst in Bolsamanía.

“Only above the november maximums, will the Ibex 35 give a proper step forward. In the meantime, the least important thing is if the Ibex contributes in the 10,400 points or in the 10000 points. Everything that happens inside the range of the 9,900 points as a support zone and the 10,600 points as a resistance zone will lack technical implications of any kind. The only thing that is left is to keep trusting that in some moment the Ibex ends up being capable of jumping with clarity over the 10,600 points and if it can be in the weekly charts the better”, adds the expert.