US-China make Europe rise but the Ibex can't go over the 8,700

European stocks closed higher on Tuesday (Ibex: + 0.22%; Cac 40: + 1%; Dax 30: + 0.6%; Ftse 100: + 0.3%) and Ibex 35 has stayed at the gates of 8,700 points. The parques of the Old Continent have turned around after knowing that the United States and China will resume trade dialogue in two weeks and have delayed the tariffs that would have come into force in September.

In spite of everything, doubts and uncertainty have continued to weigh heavily in Europe. In fact, this Tuesday the European stocks have remained in red throughout the morning with the political tensions of Italy, Argentina and Hong Kong focusing all the attention.

Already this Monday, the markets suffered the consequences of political turmoil in Europe, Asia and Latin America, and so far this Tuesday they have managed to stop the falls and turn around. However, Argentina has become the main focus of uncertainty. Although this Tuesday it rebounds 11%, investors are still in shock after the historic fall of 38% on the eve of the Argentine stock market before the threat of Peronism's return.

The United States and China have been the ones who have encouraged markets after announcing that they will resume trade talks in two weeks. And in addition, some tariffs that the US planned to impose on Chinese products in early September have been delayed until December.

The commercial representative, Robert Lighnizer, along with the Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin; They have started new telephone conversations with Liu He, the main negotiator on the part of the Chinese Government. Thus, Wall Street that had started the day on the down side has risen and records increases of almost 2%.

Thus, the Ibex has moved to green and ArcelorMittal, the main thermometer of the commercial war has positioned itself as the most bullish value and has risen 5.3%. It was followed by Ence that has added 4.8% and Cie has advanced 2.6%. On the opposite side, Cellnex has fallen 2.5% and Aena has dropped 1.5%.

However, there are many open fronts and Italy is also worried, after the vice premier and leader of the Northern League, Matteo Salvini's move to seize power; and Hong Kong, since if protests escalate they could cause a real stock market earthquake. In fact, investors fear that instability in an area considered a financial hub will be cut off by China.

In fact, what is happening in Hong Kong has set off alarms in the region, where the stock exchanges have recorded significant losses on Tuesday, led by the Hong Kong Hang Seng index. Not even the decision of the People's Bank of China, which has set the average official reference rate for the yuan at 7.0326 per dollar, stronger than expected and above the psychological barrier of 7 per dollar for the fourth consecutive session , has served to breathe courage.

The leader of the Hong Kong Government, Carrie Lam, who has avoided responding to the repression of security forces, has said that "it will take a long time to restore Hong Kong" from protests by protesters. The situation has caused Chinese state media to speculate on the possibility of Beijing intervening if the situation in Hong Kong does not improve. This Tuesday the Hong Kong airport, which yesterday had to cancel all flights, has returned to operate, although hundreds of people have returned to the terminal to paralyze the airfield again.

"The negative feeling of risk prevails, with the US and Asian equity markets down above 1%, the yield on bonds quoting near record low levels and the yen continuing its appreciation," experts say. Danske Bank For their part, from CMC Markets remember that in recent years investors "have had plenty of time to absorb the different winds that have been presented and, on each occasion, the declines in equity markets have tended to be accepted. " In fact, these analysts point out, "the markets have proven to be quite resistant," although this resistance has now begun to be tested and is becoming apparent "in other asset classes," since "flows to refuge assets show signs of a rising pace. "

EARRINGS OF MACRO DATA

Thus, attention has also focused on the macroeconomic terrain, since this Tuesday in the euro zone the data of the German Zew has been known, which has fallen to the worst level in more than seven years. The market did not have too many expectations, and the bad omens have finally been confirmed. July inflation has also been published in the German country (increased to 1.7% in the seventh month of the year, compared to 1.6% in June) and in Spain, where the CPI has rebounded to 0.5 % for gasoline and food.

In addition, the unemployment data for June has been published in the United Kingdom, which has risen to 3.9%. So far the rates of growth of wages and employment have been quite high, and that despite the fact that the economic momentum has been quite weak. Now, once the contraction of the British economy has been confirmed for the first time in seven years, it will be necessary to see if the situation will remain the same or if, on the contrary, the labor market shows signs of moderation.